Will Christine Lagarde no longer be serving as ECB president by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 49.0% | — | $13K | C | 0x47a99f…1517 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Christine Lagarde from rules text · editorial
- the European Central Bank from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RY5PDHDZD9",
"slug": "christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026",
"question": "Will Christine Lagarde no longer be serving as ECB president by the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"ecb-leadership",
"christine-lagarde",
"european-politics",
"central-banking",
"2026-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13254,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 55,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Christine Lagarde",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the European Central Bank",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}