Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | $445 | $4.4K | C | 0xb9baf4…efd1 | ||
| Keir Starmer | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $91 | $10K | C | 0xa9aeba…12bb | ||
| Wes Streeting | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | $332 | $5.4K | C | 0x7aa206…1c94 | ||
| Ed Miliband | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $335 | C | 0xa80271…a033 | ||
| Angela Rayner | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x82f70f…55ce | ||
| Al Carns | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0xb0d456…bab6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.
If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | polymarket | 2026-07-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | polymarket | 2026-07-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | polymarket | 2026-07-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | polymarket | 2026-07-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | polymarket | 2026-07-17 | 0% |
| YES | Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | polymarket | 2026-07-17 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5PQ4Z7D292",
"slug": "candidates-in-next-labour-leadership-election",
"question": "Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"uk-politics",
"labour-party",
"leadership-election",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23128,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}