Will the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election occur and produce a winner by November 3, 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ma | 2026-11-03 | 92.0% | — | $12K | C | 0x01ea73…3772 | ||
| Rakesh Christian | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x1a4fe3…aa47 | ||
| Josh Fryday | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $3.3K | C | 0xc9153b…b224 | ||
| Ebie Lynch | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0xba6f8e…c964 | ||
| Sean Collinson | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $1.2K | C | 0x6d6223…426f | ||
| David Fennell | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $1.2K | C | 0x1eb54f…3c1a | ||
| Janelle Kellman | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | — | $1.4K | C | 0xcdf2cd…6255 | ||
| Oliver Ma | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $3.8K | C | 0x414f28…e1ac | ||
| Michael Tubbs | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $1.7K | C | 0x8d1a63…079d | ||
| David Collenberg | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1.5K | C | 0xef9d07…a0ff | ||
| Jeyson Lopez | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | C | 0xfa4061…bf70 | ||
| Option B | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x559bf9…3177 | ||
| Option C | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x94b896…a97e | ||
| Option D | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf96dc3…b108 | ||
| Option E | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x38e58b…dbc7 | ||
| Option F | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1482cb…15b1 | ||
| Option G | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x47583e…6f60 | ||
| Option H | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x31edbf…4a4f | ||
| Option I | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf25487…2310 | ||
| Option J | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x973ae9…46fe | ||
| Option K | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x37c945…3f2d | ||
| Option L | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb46384…6f6c | ||
| Option M | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe94490…9fb8 | ||
| Option N | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x878780…edce | ||
| Option O | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x56035e…746a | ||
| Option P | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf479ac…f26d | ||
| Option Q | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6c77e7…ed00 | ||
| Option R | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x445f99…11c8 | ||
| Option S | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e9147…fc09 | ||
| Option T | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfb42d4…34e3 | ||
| Option U | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaead74…316f | ||
| Option V | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x22bcc2…e818 | ||
| Option W | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4c5f81…0e9e | ||
| Option X | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4b8560…2022 | ||
| Option Y | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x804e5c…2156 | ||
| Option Z | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x588e0e…df16 | ||
| Other | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8fcd38…d72f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
- Associated Press from rules text · editorial
- Fox News from rules text · editorial
- NBC from rules text · editorial
- official certification from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/california-lieutenant-governor-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/california-lieutenant-governor-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("california-lieutenant-governor-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SDVX9CWY40",
"slug": "california-lieutenant-governor-election-winner",
"question": "Will the 2026 California Lieutenant Governor election occur and produce a winner by November 3, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"california",
"lieutenant-governor",
"2026",
"us-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29931,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}