CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will a California Governor be elected on the 2026 general election date? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 45 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Xavier Becerra 2026-11-03 93.3%
$6.4K $1.69M
C 0xa5d79e…ddf3
Steve Hilton 2026-11-03 6.7%
$4.4K $2.50M
C 0x119b6b…d19e
Rick Caruso 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.79M
C 0x046941…f958
Alex Padilla 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.99M
C 0x433587…7861
Katie Porter 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.77M
C 0x11375f…f457
Antonio Villaraigosa 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.61M
C 0x555d42…fcf0
Stephen Cloobeck 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.57M
C 0xa0a62b…51e8
Butch Ware 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.31M
C 0xad80f8…a5e8
Betty Yee 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.75M
C 0x43cf1b…5af8
Toni Atkins 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.56M
C 0x394b2b…5c52
Kyle Langford 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.83M
C 0x0a4673…08a3
Chad Bianco 2026-11-03 0.1%
$131 $1.94M
C 0x1a5b89…2c3e
Eleni Kounalakis 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.43M
C 0x331cd6…b401
Daniel Mercuri 2026-11-03 0.1%
$5.0K $1.40M
C 0x44efa7…0cae
Tony Thurmond 2026-11-03 0.1%
$5.0K $1.42M
C 0xbaa911…09e0
Michael Younger 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.55M
C 0xc6564d…04a9
Leo Zacky 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.09M
C 0x063455…19c4
Nicole Shanahan 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.78M
C 0x5ff846…33e7
Eric Swalwell 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.50M
C 0x957ddc…cb6e
Tom Steyer 2026-11-03 0.1%
$894 $4.77M
C 0x8d62f2…f2ef
Kamala Harris 2026-11-03 0.1%
$5.0K $1.57M
C 0x6d6b9d…a805
Matt Mahan 2026-11-03 0.1%
$210 $1.36M
C 0x58b047…e4ca
Elaine Culotti 2026-11-03 0.1%
$1.26M
C 0x83d00d…1481
Option F 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x73335f…5425
Option G 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x1e7bc3…4f1b
Option H 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x2449d9…c0d4
Option I 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x2afaec…2464
Option J 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xe6ac0c…0c11
Option K 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xbdc6a9…282a
Option L 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xcc321e…4fb3
Option M 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x36e5e5…b416
Option N 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xa8a184…09e7
Option O 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x829df7…3718
Option P 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x99c3b0…8813
Option Q 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x20e8d4…539c
Option R 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xc2810d…344b
Option S 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xebf3b3…351e
Option T 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x355f94…11fb
Option U 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xf38e60…59f9
Option V 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x90e60c…7d76
Option W 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0xd73d9c…9440
Option X 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x0c26c4…7999
Option Y 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x88604d…7602
Option Z 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x154f03…774f
Other 2026-11-03 0.0%
C 0x9b5e65…cf70
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 45 markets · share this text
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned
sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
  • Associated Press from rules text · editorial
  • Fox News from rules text · editorial
  • NBC from rules text · editorial
  • official certification from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/california-governor-election-2026/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/california-governor-election-2026
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("california-governor-election-2026")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CXV3VJX3F4",
  "slug": "california-governor-election-2026",
  "question": "Will a California Governor be elected on the 2026 general election date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "california",
    "2026",
    "executive-office",
    "us-state"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 45,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 40415079,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 57,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Associated Press",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "official certification",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →