Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 45 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 81.6% | $149K | $1.20M | C | 0xa5d79e…ddf3 | ||
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 10.5% | $148K | $3.67M | C | 0x8d62f2…f2ef | ||
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 6.6% | $111K | $1.69M | C | 0x119b6b…d19e | ||
| Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $63K | $1.30M | C | 0x394b2b…5c52 | ||
| Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $115K | $1.64M | C | 0x1a5b89…2c3e | ||
| Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $127K | $1.35M | C | 0x046941…f958 | ||
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $91K | $1.46M | C | 0x11375f…f457 | ||
| Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $48K | $1.28M | C | 0xa0a62b…51e8 | ||
| Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $45K | $1.47M | C | 0x43cf1b…5af8 | ||
| Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $51K | $1.70M | C | 0x0a4673…08a3 | ||
| Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $52K | $1.25M | C | 0x331cd6…b401 | ||
| Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $54K | $1.12M | C | 0xbaa911…09e0 | ||
| Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $47K | $902K | C | 0x063455…19c4 | ||
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $86K | $1.25M | C | 0x957ddc…cb6e | ||
| Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $47K | $1.30M | C | 0x6d6b9d…a805 | ||
| Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $55K | $988K | C | 0x83d00d…1481 | ||
| Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $58K | $1.26M | C | 0x433587…7861 | ||
| Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $52K | $1.01M | C | 0x555d42…fcf0 | ||
| Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $49K | $1.08M | C | 0xad80f8…a5e8 | ||
| Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $45K | $1.07M | C | 0x44efa7…0cae | ||
| Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $51K | $1.31M | C | 0xc6564d…04a9 | ||
| Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $52K | $1.39M | C | 0x5ff846…33e7 | ||
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $72K | $954K | C | 0x58b047…e4ca | ||
| Will Option G win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1e7bc3…4f1b | ||
| Will Option I win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2afaec…2464 | ||
| Will Option K win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbdc6a9…282a | ||
| Will Option M win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x36e5e5…b416 | ||
| Will Option O win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x829df7…3718 | ||
| Will Option Q win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x20e8d4…539c | ||
| Will Option S win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xebf3b3…351e | ||
| Will Option U win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf38e60…59f9 | ||
| Will Option W win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd73d9c…9440 | ||
| Will Option Y win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x88604d…7602 | ||
| Will Other win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9b5e65…cf70 | ||
| Will Option F win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x73335f…5425 | ||
| Will Option H win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2449d9…c0d4 | ||
| Will Option J win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe6ac0c…0c11 | ||
| Will Option L win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcc321e…4fb3 | ||
| Will Option N win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa8a184…09e7 | ||
| Will Option P win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x99c3b0…8813 | ||
| Will Option R win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc2810d…344b | ||
| Will Option T win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x355f94…11fb | ||
| Will Option V win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x90e60c…7d76 | ||
| Will Option X win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0c26c4…7999 | ||
| Will Option Z win the California Governor Election in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x154f03…774f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Associated Press | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Associated Press" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/california-governor-election-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/california-governor-election-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("california-governor-election-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CXV3VJX3F4",
"slug": "california-governor-election-2026",
"question": "Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"california",
"2026",
"executive-office",
"us-state"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 45,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31632761,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Associated Press",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}