Will Bulgaria hold a presidential election by 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-30 (130D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliana Iotova | 2026-11-30 | 49.0% | — | $89K | B | 0x5512bf…f485 | ||
| Аndrey Gyurov | 2026-11-30 | 36.0% | $1.2K | $10K | B | 0xd0590f…b407 | ||
| Nikolai Denkov | 2026-11-30 | 4.2% | — | $25K | B | 0xd70997…15dd | ||
| Boyko Borissov | 2026-11-30 | 0.9% | — | $5.8K | B | 0x6861ed…bfbe | ||
| Rosen Zhelyazkov | 2026-11-30 | 0.8% | — | $27K | B | 0xbda477…5a2d | ||
| Vassil Terziev | 2026-11-30 | 0.5% | — | $6.2K | B | 0x0e675a…e5c2 | ||
| Yanaki Stoilov | 2026-11-30 | 0.3% | $7 | $5.8K | B | 0x74be00…1f79 | ||
| Blagomir Kotsev | 2026-11-30 | 0.2% | — | $11K | B | 0x01b973…e1a4 | ||
| Kostadin Kostadinov | 2026-11-30 | 0.2% | $5 | $7.0K | B | 0xa9e24f…c390 | ||
| Natalia Kiselova | 2026-11-30 | 0.2% | $7 | $5.8K | B | 0x7b08f4…22b5 | ||
| Krum Zarkov | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $5.0K | B | 0x5e202b…bd89 | ||
| Atanas Atanasov | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $4.4K | B | 0xe20cc3…05f0 | ||
| Delyan Peevski | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $4.2K | B | 0x85f86b…f002 | ||
| Rosen Plevneliev | 2026-11-30 | 0.1% | $7 | $4.6K | B | 0xfa2b0a…b1cd | ||
| Someone else | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd2dee8…34a2 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xeb3176…e477 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb4128e…1c69 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8fd935…778f | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4b558c…d94a | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5eb9ec…80cb | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb2cb6c…5f85 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4f5148…7585 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0df806…c2ca | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x542b81…3b62 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa3237b…0146 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfabf0b…89f4 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb28300…a166 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x78fa49…ee46 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x16a748…03fb | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1e5697…5edd | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x32f1af…d2b1 | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5d1a27…81e9 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x21e225…15bc | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdccf82…1d33 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdbac18…e610 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x462e6b…4dfb | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x88785a…55dd | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfa980d…5bed | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x53385f…b2b8 | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-11-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3257f4…88c7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) source of record from rules text · editorial
- www.cik.bg/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Borissov Bulgarian presidency bid priced out near zero 1% · $17K 24h
- Polymarket prices Boyko Borissov winning the next Bulgarian presidency at just 1%, near-zero conviction.
- 75% of all-time volume hit in 24h, three-quarters of the contract's entire history in one session.
- A legal, political, or electoral development in Sofia almost certainly triggered the concentrated trading.
- With 75% of all-time volume in a single day, the market is treating this as a closing, not opening, bet.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bulgaria-presidential-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bulgaria-presidential-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bulgaria-presidential-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C541X65QT7",
"slug": "bulgaria-presidential-election",
"question": "Will Bulgaria hold a presidential election by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"bulgaria",
"presidential-election",
"2026",
"eastern-europe"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 210875,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.cik.bg/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}