Will the second-place finisher in Brazil's presidential election first round be determined by DATE? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (123D) ]
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 62.0% | $74 | $61K | B | 0x611430…4c73 | ||
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 19.2% | $119 | $1.01M | B | 0x83030b…2d8f | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the… | 2026-10-04 | 10.0% | $8.2K | $84K | B | 0x8ee27c…6ec0 | ||
| Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 5.4% | $227 | $657K | B | 0x0f8a16…03f5 | ||
| Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 3.0% | — | $261K | B | 0xa68adb…92da | ||
| Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 1.4% | $45 | $60K | B | 0x8576ba…a08f | ||
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 1.4% | $1.5K | $303K | B | 0x1991f6…a1fb | ||
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.9% | — | $83K | B | 0x000e7d…d260 | ||
| Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.6% | $35 | $127K | B | 0xce4c63…0bc3 | ||
| Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.3% | $73 | $7.7K | B | 0x178b80…7d5f | ||
| Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $31K | B | 0xb7703a…01bf | ||
| Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | $3.8K | $90K | B | 0x61fc51…8bce | ||
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of… | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $645K | B | 0xbc0832…d018 | ||
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $5 | $52K | B | 0xca31cf…e20c | ||
| Will Helder Barbalho finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — | $3.9K | B | 0x2366a6…72cf | ||
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — | $114K | B | 0xfe963a…e824 | ||
| Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — | $43K | B | 0x45933d…7c64 | ||
| Will Person Q finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x80f449…5cb7 | ||
| Will Person S finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xaa3281…d686 | ||
| Will Person P finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x017da5…6ee2 | ||
| Will Person R finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xeaaa12…cf02 | ||
| Will Person U finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcb7dca…f56e | ||
| Will Person W finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x52f2a3…b433 | ||
| Will Person Y finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9af7dd…01c4 | ||
| Will another person finish in second place in the first round of the 2026… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdb2f0a…bb77 | ||
| Will Person M finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7b2fba…643a | ||
| Will Person N finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb218b7…7b7f | ||
| Will Person O finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8def1b…b8f3 | ||
| Will Person T finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x88e32e…6e25 | ||
| Will Person V finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd4e3d8…49ec | ||
| Will Person X finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x69e94e…2872 | ||
| Will Person Z finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian… | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x62c708…0fdd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Z8ZNQ1C002",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place",
"question": "Will the second-place finisher in Brazil's presidential election first round be determined by DATE?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil-2026",
"electoral-outcomes",
"runoff-dynamics",
"political-ranking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3630822,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}