Will the second-place finisher in the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election be determined? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (73D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 73.0% | $7.5K | $197K | A | 0x611430…4c73 | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-04 | 19.3% | $8.4K | $1.06M | A | 0x83030b…2d8f | ||
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-04 | 9.0% | $233 | $135K | A | 0x8ee27c…6ec0 | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-04 | 1.0% | $122 | $337K | A | 0x1991f6…a1fb | ||
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.9% | $7.2K | $117K | A | 0x000e7d…d260 | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-04 | 0.8% | $122 | $287K | A | 0xa68adb…92da | ||
| Camilo Santana | 2026-10-04 | 0.7% | $122 | $84K | A | 0x8576ba…a08f | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.3% | $163 | $118K | A | 0x61fc51…8bce | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-04 | 0.3% | $465 | $683K | A | 0x0f8a16…03f5 | ||
| Geraldo Alckmin | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | $139 | $145K | A | 0xce4c63…0bc3 | ||
| Tereza Cristina | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | $156 | $26K | A | 0x178b80…7d5f | ||
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $331 | $160K | A | 0xfe963a…e824 | ||
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $264 | $92K | A | 0xca31cf…e20c | ||
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $330 | $663K | A | 0xbc0832…d018 | ||
| Aldo Rebelo | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $309 | $53K | A | 0xb7703a…01bf | ||
| Eduardo Leite | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | $424 | $62K | A | 0x45933d…7c64 | ||
| Helder Barbalho | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — | $21K | A | 0x2366a6…72cf | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7b2fba…643a | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb218b7…7b7f | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8def1b…b8f3 | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x017da5…6ee2 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x80f449…5cb7 | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeaaa12…cf02 | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaa3281…d686 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x88e32e…6e25 | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcb7dca…f56e | ||
| Person V | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd4e3d8…49ec | ||
| Person W | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x52f2a3…b433 | ||
| Person X | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x69e94e…2872 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9af7dd…01c4 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x62c708…0fdd | ||
| Another person | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdb2f0a…bb77 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
- dadosabertos.tse.jus.br venue-listed
- Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Barbalho second-place finish written off, capital stacks against 0% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket assigns 0% probability Helder Barbalho finishes second in Brazil's 2026 first-round presidential vote.
- 24h volume of $11,018 is 55% of all-time handle, a concentrated, conviction-heavy settlement flow.
- Surge at zero price suggests new polling or candidate field data has definitively closed off this outcome.
- Resolves YES only if Barbalho places second in Round 1; market has effectively ruled this out.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Z8ZNQ1C002",
"slug": "brazil-presidential-election-first-round-2nd-place",
"question": "Will the second-place finisher in the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential Election be determined?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil-2026",
"presidential-election",
"electoral-outcome",
"first-round"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4237525,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}