Will there be a blue wave in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-30 (118D) ]
Blue wave in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue wave in 2026 | 2026-11-30 | 79.0% | — | $53K | C | 0xed4fd0…88ed |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2)
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com venue-listed
recent wire items
- Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored on Polymarket Polymarket 81%
- Polymarket prices a Democratic blue wave in 2026 at 81%, a strong lean toward a full Democratic sweep of Congress.
- News coverage of Trump election-integrity moves and Republican warning signs is directionally consistent with this elevated probability.
- Cross-venue check: Kalshi's contract on Republicans holding at least one chamber sits at 48%, implying a narrower range of outcomes than Polymarket's 81% blue-wave read suggests.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the gap between 81% (Polymarket blue wave) and 52% (Kalshi GOP holds one chamber) is the key arbitrage tension of the midterm cycle.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/blue-wave-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/blue-wave-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("blue-wave-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
"slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
"question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"congress",
"elections",
"us-midterms-2026",
"democratic-gains",
"election-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 52969,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
"url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}