Will a billionaire one-time wealth tax pass in the California election in 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.7% | $1.8K | $3.62M | C | 0x9345d5…588a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ sources (2)
6abc.com venue-listed official information from the Government of the State of California from rules text
recent wire items
- California billionaire wealth tax odds stay well below 25% Polymarket 24%
- Polymarket puts the California billionaire one-time wealth tax passing at 24%, keeping it a clear underdog heading into the vote.
- Record $12 billion in national midterm spending has not translated to market confidence in the California ballot measure succeeding.
- The 24% probability sits well below the 50% threshold, suggesting the market is not pricing any late-cycle polling surge for the measure.
- Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle; California ballot initiative results can take days to certify given mail-vote counting rules, delaying settlement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NGG1B28FJ8",
"slug": "billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026",
"question": "Will a billionaire one-time wealth tax pass in the California election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"california-2026",
"wealth-tax",
"ballot-measure",
"economic-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3616339,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "6abc.com",
"url": "https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the Government of the State of California",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}