Will a billionaire one-time wealth tax appear on a California ballot? [ resolves 2026-06-25 (22D) ]

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot	2026-06-25	93.0%		$150	$132K		B	`0x04f1a1…fc62`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	California Secretary Of State (consensus fallback)	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolution_source → "California Secretary Of State (consensus fallback)"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MYD49CY8L9",
  "slug": "billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot",
  "question": "Will a billionaire one-time wealth tax appear on a California ballot?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "california",
    "wealth-tax",
    "ballot-measure",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 131509,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 74,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "California Secretary Of State (consensus fallback)",
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →