Will the best AI model on June 13 be different from the current best AI model? [ resolved 2026-06-13 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude-opus-4-6-thinking | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $14K | $59K | A | 0xeec298…0450 | ||
| Claude-opus-4-6 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $2.0K | $13K | A | 0x623366…a5a4 | ||
| Claude-opus-4-7-thinking | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $155 | $8.4K | A | 0x32f7f3…b22f | ||
| Gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $55 | $6.1K | A | 0x68c8f0…e541 | ||
| Gemini-3.5-flash | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $50 | $2.3K | A | 0xcd793a…0693 | ||
| Any other model | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $12K | $69K | A | 0xfbfe42…d051 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (5) · single authority
- lmarena.ai venue-listed
- lmarena.ai venue-listed
- Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://lmarena.ai/ from rules text · editorial
- https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 100% |
| NO | Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/best-ai-model-on-june-13/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/best-ai-model-on-june-13 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("best-ai-model-on-june-13") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NYQM4F2GD5",
"slug": "best-ai-model-on-june-13",
"question": "Will the best AI model on June 13 be different from the current best AI model?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"model-performance",
"benchmarking",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 157656,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "lmarena.ai",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://lmarena.ai/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}