Base FDV one day after launch [ resolves 2028-01-01 (577D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by strike

polymarket 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ $2,000,000,000	2028-01-01	74.0%	$117	$227K	C	`0xd73dc4…6cad`
≥ $4,000,000,000	2028-01-01	57.0%	$1.1K	$73K	C	`0x5c18bf…cfff`
≥ $6,000,000,000	2028-01-01	32.0%	$307	$115K	C	`0x74cc8e…57be`
≥ $8,000,000,000	2028-01-01	28.0%	—	$60K	C	`0x9b8e91…91fe`
≥ $10,000,000,000	2028-01-01	26.0%	$20	$42K	C	`0x888a55…ab2b`
≥ $12,000,000,000	2028-01-01	17.0%	$77	$80K	C	`0xf07d61…3f00`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 6 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/base-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/base-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("base-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WDD1X55X97",
  "slug": "base-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Base FDV one day after launch",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "launch-metrics",
    "fully-diluted-valuation",
    "base-protocol",
    "2028"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 595729,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 38,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →