Will the Republicans gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Senate, D House | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | $81K | $2.39M | A | 0x16c63b…8b0d | ||
| D Senate, R House | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | $239 | $1.36M | A | 0x0808de…a908 | ||
| R Senate, D House | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | $3.3K | $1.72M | A | 0x998bc7…c06e | ||
| R Senate, R House | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | $5.8K | $2.06M | A | 0xc5eae7…e76b | ||
| Other | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | $2.2K | $1.74M | A | 0x7987a8…fd3d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Full GOP sweep odds stay near the floor on heavy volume 5% · $5.7M 24h
- At 5%, Polymarket sees a full Republican House-and-Senate sweep as a near-remote outcome heading into 2026 midterms.
- $5.7M traded in 24h, 26% of all-time volume, marks one of the contract's busiest single sessions.
- Elevated turnover at a low price suggests active selling of the sweep scenario, not a revival of GOP optimism.
- Resolves after 2026 midterm results confirm both chamber outcomes.
- Traders back D-Senate R-House split at long-shot odds 1% · $3M 24h
- Market prices Democratic Senate / Republican House balance of power at just 1%, near-zero conviction.
- Polymarket logged $3.01M in 24h volume, equal to 39% of the contract's entire all-time handle.
- Seven days from Election Day, a concentrated burst of activity tests whether any residual split-Congress scenario retains value.
- Resolves on certified 120th Congress composition.
- Split-Congress sweep odds hold near zero on heavy trading 1% · $3M 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic Senate / Republican House outcome at just 1%, near-total rejection.
- 39% of all-time volume landed in 24h, making this one of the contract's highest-activity sessions.
- Week-before-election positioning drives fresh attention; traders are closing out or hedging tail scenarios.
- Resolves on certified 120th Congress composition.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/balance-of-power-2026-midterms/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/balance-of-power-2026-midterms |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("balance-of-power-2026-midterms") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-420D9TG6H7",
"slug": "balance-of-power-2026-midterms",
"question": "Will the Republicans gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-midterms",
"2026",
"balance-of-power",
"legislative-control"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9274891,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}