Will the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be effectively closed in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolved 2026-06-22 ]
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 2026-04-30 | 13.0% | $42K | $249K | A | 0x95fc6a…126b | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-30 | 0.0% | — | $330K | A | 0x2d7ff3…058b | ||
| April 30 | 2026-04-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.65M | A | 0xcd26bd…59fd | ||
| May 31 | 2026-04-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.34M | A | 0x9647b0…a214 | ||
| June 30 | 2026-04-30 | 0.0% | $92K | $842K | A | 0xa976dc…7f53 | ||
| June 15 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $36K | $111K | A | 0x9b6f9e…61ae | ||
| June 22 | 2026-06-22 | 0.0% | $27K | $68K | A | 0xcd2270…bd27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c sources (3) · single authority
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF PortWatch source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-07-08 | 0% |
| NO | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? | polymarket | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
| NO | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
| NO | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-02 | 0% |
| NO | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | polymarket | 2026-05-05 | 0% |
| NO | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-07 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K5R3GLSMF6",
"slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by",
"question": "Will the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be effectively closed in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"maritime-chokepoint",
"yemen-houthis",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4590563,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}