Will the AZ-01 Republican primary have a winner determined? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (62D) ]
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 69.0% | — | $8.4K | C | 0x50cacb…5f6e | ||
| Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 8.0% | — | $11K | C | 0x7fcf21…fa8c | ||
| Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.6% | — | $3.9K | C | 0x3eb365…2bce | ||
| Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.3% | — | $49K | C | 0xf6fabb…1fda | ||
| Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $8.1K | C | 0xeac6e1…cc6b | ||
| Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $7.6K | C | 0x61e6c8…529e | ||
| Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $3.9K | C | 0xb580aa…136a | ||
| Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $5.1K | C | 0xd8cb37…36e8 | ||
| Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $3.2K | C | 0x0d8c05…004a | ||
| Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $5.2K | C | 0x9ae004…9772 | ||
| Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $74K | C | 0x962787…2408 | ||
| Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $11K | C | 0xa6eeec…b7db | ||
| Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $223K | C | 0xa04457…5bbd | ||
| Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $11K | C | 0x893833…803d | ||
| Will Candidate H be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3b184d…95ea | ||
| Will Candidate J be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x79ab6f…5fb1 | ||
| Will Candidate L be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x263e5a…b106 | ||
| Will Candidate N be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x68cd92…552f | ||
| Will another candidate be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x624287…648d | ||
| Will Candidate G be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x366d41…8479 | ||
| Will Candidate I be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3fc332…b596 | ||
| Will Candidate K be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6e2b70…f7fe | ||
| Will Candidate M be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa2167c…aaf1 | ||
| Will Candidate O be the Republican nominee for AZ-01 | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x74b513…2a88 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/az-01-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/az-01-republican-primary-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("az-01-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W64JMGM6Q3",
"slug": "az-01-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the AZ-01 Republican primary have a winner determined?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"arizona",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 424394,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}