Will the Argentina presidential election winner be determined by October 24, 2027? [ resolves 2027-10-24 (458D) ]

polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 64 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Javier Milei	2027-10-24	48.0%	$206	$103K	B	`0x338f6f…fd3b`
Axel Kicillof	2027-10-24	47.0%	$291	$70K	B	`0xf35a56…6bde`
Dante Gebel	2027-10-24	4.9%	$66	$25K	B	`0x22f055…79cb`
Sergio Massa	2027-10-24	1.7%	$66	$30K	B	`0xea83e5…3a7f`
Mauricio Macri	2027-10-24	1.0%	$66	$25K	B	`0x9e7ff9…3d11`
Juan Grabois	2027-10-24	0.8%	$66	$21K	B	`0x68aea8…0532`
Myriam Bregman	2027-10-24	0.8%	$66	$24K	B	`0x988f13…14ab`
Victoria Villarruel	2027-10-24	0.5%	$66	$19K	B	`0x8f5585…e534`
Juan Schiaretti	2027-10-24	0.4%	$66	$17K	B	`0xa1114c…3da3`
Esteban Bullrich	2027-10-24	0.2%	$66	$17K	B	`0xfe7c59…34a9`
Facundo Manes	2027-10-24	0.2%	$41	$14K	B	`0xb93645…9f7b`
Person A	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xfdba3e…701a`
Person B	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x8d5571…d919`
Person C	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x23e9e2…24fd`
Person D	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xef0f7b…8c1d`
Person E	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x4ea276…c925`
Person F	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xf8be17…2111`
Person G	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xf8676c…6c5d`
Person H	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x983cb3…0e9f`
Person I	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xba0237…f1a9`
Person J	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x5dabb6…86b6`
Person K	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x822b9c…e7c6`
Person L	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb94cac…4846`
Person M	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x14bd74…6a96`
Person N	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x3e9aed…0af4`
Person O	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xaf30b9…7989`
Person P	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc3d340…b31a`
Person Q	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb43318…5820`
Person R	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x777787…e3e4`
Person S	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc91ac3…bacb`
Person T	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xa7157b…2b9e`
Person U	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x5732a9…d0be`
Person V	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x2d09cc…f351`
Person W	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x9112ee…5ccc`
Person X	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x34814a…7859`
Person Y	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb0b3e8…fcd9`
Person Z	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x3942fb…dd4c`
Person AA	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x7a6097…03c2`
Person AB	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x042265…bdd7`
Person AC	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x02cb90…a5a3`
Person AD	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xbdbb23…048c`
Person AE	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb13cb6…0592`
Person AF	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x96ecdc…919b`
Person AG	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x121548…752c`
Person AH	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xeb4139…a5b0`
Person AI	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x40bb8b…4ad4`
Person AJ	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x81bfc1…4ac1`
Person AK	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb7d7fd…3a7c`
Person AL	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xec0e4b…bee6`
Person AM	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x3c23f3…066e`
Person AN	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x56cad5…1e33`
Person AO	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x3591c3…c645`
Person AP	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x0b5825…0e44`
Person AQ	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x9d27f1…2924`
Person AR	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x4c77b9…cd8e`
Person AS	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x3e8910…52eb`
Person AT	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x457d97…d214`
Person AU	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xf39fa1…c642`
Person AV	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x43d6d2…7a51`
Person AW	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x6da6b9…0c3f`
Person AX	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x2f8ba2…0b43`
Person AY	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x5535bb…b30a`
Person AZ	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x9706c1…55c2`
Someone else	2027-10-24	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xaffebc…60c7`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 64 markets · share this text

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (4) · stated precedence rule

electoral.gob.ar source of record venue-listed
argentina.gob.ar venue-listed
Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) from rules text · editorial
Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine) from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/argentina-presidential-election-winner/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/argentina-presidential-election-winner`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("argentina-presidential-election-winner")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6Y6JDSVW06",
  "slug": "argentina-presidential-election-winner",
  "question": "Will the Argentina presidential election winner be determined by October 24, 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "argentina",
    "2027",
    "executive-election",
    "latin-america"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 64,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 364610,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "electoral.gob.ar",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "electoral.gob.ar",
      "url": "https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "argentina.gob.ar",
      "url": "https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →