Will Argentina's annual inflation rate exceed 50% by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-10 (221D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 20% | 2027-01-10 | 5.4% | — | $1.4K | B | 0x0256fe…4091 | ||
| ≥ 20% | 2027-01-10 | 5.4% | — | $2.5K | B | 0x9caf17…164e | ||
| ≥ 25% | 2027-01-10 | 39.0% | — | $1.7K | B | 0x4ea517…7f45 | ||
| ≥ 30% | 2027-01-10 | 30.6% | — | $1.1K | B | 0xdfd83f…8bcb | ||
| ≥ 35% | 2027-01-10 | 15.0% | — | $1.2K | B | 0x7a73d2…3a91 | ||
| ≥ 40% | 2027-01-10 | 5.7% | — | $1.0K | B | 0xd7c034…0263 | ||
| ≥ 45% | 2027-01-10 | 6.1% | — | $1.2K | B | 0x444cb8…dfa9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/argentina-annual-inflation-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/argentina-annual-inflation-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("argentina-annual-inflation-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZG3N2852L2",
"slug": "argentina-annual-inflation-2026",
"question": "Will Argentina's annual inflation rate exceed 50% by the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"argentina-economy",
"monetary-policy",
"emerging-markets",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10156,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.indec.gob.ar/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}