Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day? [ resolves 2026-06-03 (0D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2.75 | 2026-06-03 | 0.5% | $174 | $2.5K | B | 0xbce928…cfde | ||
| $3 | 2026-06-03 | 33.0% | $148 | $4.7K | B | 0xb4c49c…144b | ||
| $3.5 | 2026-06-03 | 41.0% | $190 | $8.6K | B | 0xec83d1…fe68 | ||
| $4 | 2026-06-03 | 14.0% | $157 | $3.7K | B | 0x58a7e2…c3a1 | ||
| $4.5 | 2026-06-03 | 11.9% | $109 | $1.5K | B | 0xad53c0…1e6e | ||
| Will Applied Aerospace & Defense not IPO before August 2026 | 2026-06-03 | 0.3% | $20 | $1.7K | B | 0xf55f8f…1b20 | ||
| $5 | 2026-06-03 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | B | 0x0d631e…eff8 | ||
| ≥ $5.25 | 2026-06-03 | 0.4% | $113 | $2.2K | B | 0xd2609a…81bd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Sec | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on Applied Aerospace & Defense's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 3 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Sec" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/applied-aerospace-defense-ipo-closing-market-cap/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/applied-aerospace-defense-ipo-closing-market-cap.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("applied-aerospace-defense-ipo-closing-market-cap") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9DYXQJLWM0",
"slug": "applied-aerospace-defense-ipo-closing-market-cap",
"question": "Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $3.25B and $3.75B at market close on IPO day?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"business",
"finance",
"ipo",
"aerospace-defense",
"market-capitalization"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26244,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Sec",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}