Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 88.0% | $99 | $99K | B | APPLEFOLD-26DEC31 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Apple | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Apple has announced a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Apple" sources (1) · single authority
- Apple source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/applefold/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/applefold |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("applefold") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HKKK5BD3T1",
"slug": "applefold",
"question": "Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"apple-foldable-phone",
"product-announcement",
"mobile-hardware",
"consumer-tech",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 98523,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Apple",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.apple.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Apple",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Apple",
"url": "https://www.apple.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}