Will Anthropic have a higher valuation than OpenAI on June 30? [ resolves 2026-07-01 (28D) ]
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30 | 2026-07-01 | 91.0% | — | $22K | C | 0xb43a76…dcef |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for June 30, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI’s valuation at resolution, each outcome will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-june-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S4MZ1QG5C0",
"slug": "anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-june-30",
"question": "Will Anthropic have a higher valuation than OpenAI on June 30?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"valuation-comparison",
"ai-companies",
"anthropic-openai",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21688,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [
"none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}