Will Anthropic have an initial public offering by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2027-07 ]
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $32K | C | 0x74c91f…c616 | ||
| December 31, | 2027-07-01 | 68.0% | $2.2K | $203K | C | 0xb40b0c…3e47 | ||
| October 31, | 2027-07-01 | 43.0% | $5.0K | $179K | C | 0x8062cf…e040 | ||
| September 30, | 2027-07-01 | 6.0% | $2.5K | $231K | C | 0x2450ec…6b19 | ||
| September 15, | 2027-07-01 | 1.3% | $5.0K | $63K | C | 0xe51d22…f027 | ||
| July 31, | 2027-07-01 | 0.2% | — | $53K | C | 0x9ebc82…966e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (4)
- official filings and announcements from Anthropic from rules text · editorial
- relevant securities exchange from rules text · editorial
- SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A) from rules text · editorial
- official press releases from Anthropic from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/anthropic-ipo-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/anthropic-ipo-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("anthropic-ipo-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C4RW6TFKT1",
"slug": "anthropic-ipo-by",
"question": "Will Anthropic have an initial public offering by 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"anthropic",
"ipo",
"2027",
"tech-equity"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 761799,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official filings and announcements from Anthropic",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "relevant securities exchange",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official press releases from Anthropic",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}