Will Aleksandar Vučić no longer be Serbian President by the end of 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- the government of Serbia from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-02 | 100% |
| NO | Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by December 31, 2025? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders price Vučić exit as settled fact by June 30 100% · $1.3M 24h
- Polymarket at 100%, market treats Vučić's departure as a done deal.
- 24h volume $1.3M is 73% of all-time float, signaling terminal resolution rush.
- Today is the contract deadline; flows reflect last-minute settlement certainty.
- Resolves June 30; near-unanimous capital confirms outcome already in effect.
- Traders stack near-certainty on Vučić exit by June 30 96% · $418K 24h
- 96% implies Polymarket crowd treats Vučić departure as all but confirmed within 24 hours.
- $418K traded in 24h, 75% of the contract's entire all-time volume, signals last-minute conviction rush.
- Resolution deadline is tomorrow; volume spike reflects positioning ahead of imminent settlement.
- Contract resolves June 30; today's flow is effectively final-settlement arbitrage pressure.
- Capital stacks heavily behind Vučić exit by June 30 98% · $147K 24h
- Polymarket prices 98%, near-certainty implies the market has absorbed available contrary evidence.
- $147K in 24h represents 58% of all-time volume; conviction capital flooding in at the deadline.
- Deadline tomorrow; 98% print with this volume profile suggests informed participants treating resolution as fait accompli.
- Resolves June 30, any official confirmation of departure closes at 100%.
- Capital stacks deep on Vučić exit as Serbian presidency nears resolution 96% · $111K 24h
- Polymarket prices Vučić's departure from the Serbian presidency at 96%, near-certainty with hours left.
- $111K in 24h is 86% of all-time volume, compressing into final resolution window.
- Constitutional transition or formal resignation is already underway; market reflects fait accompli rather than forecast.
- Resolves June 30; residual 4% is pure optionality on a procedural reversal.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/aleksandar-vui-out-as-serbian-president-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/aleksandar-vui-out-as-serbian-president-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("aleksandar-vui-out-as-serbian-president-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-01R21H5GP2",
"slug": "aleksandar-vui-out-as-serbian-president-by",
"question": "Will Aleksandar Vučić no longer be Serbian President by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"serbia",
"executive-succession",
"leadership-transition",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17458,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the government of Serbia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}