Will Mark Begich win the 2026 Alaska Governor election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 2026-11-03 | 35.0% | $18 | $134K | A | 0xb120cb…3587 | ||
| Bernadette Wilson | 2026-11-03 | 29.0% | $55 | $159K | A | 0x9aba5b…0792 | ||
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 2026-11-03 | 14.0% | $16 | $13K | A | 0x43cedc…ced3 | ||
| Treg Taylor | 2026-11-03 | 8.2% | $26 | $22K | A | 0xbc9964…2663 | ||
| David Bronson | 2026-11-03 | 5.7% | — | $13K | A | 0x8377be…f057 | ||
| Bill Walker | 2026-11-03 | 4.9% | $55 | $4.3K | A | 0x1aaa09…f9b0 | ||
| Click Bishop | 2026-11-03 | 2.8% | $47 | $12K | A | 0xb2fddc…68db | ||
| Matt Claman | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $12K | A | 0xef25ac…abf3 | ||
| Adam Crum | 2026-11-03 | 0.6% | $174 | $42K | A | 0x807371…7529 | ||
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $122K | A | 0x90c810…e0c7 | ||
| Matt Heilala | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $34K | A | 0x9e7789…1dc7 | ||
| Mary Peltola | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $326K | A | 0x74a5ea…91a5 | ||
| Edna DeVries | 2026-11-03 | 0.4% | — | $10K | A | 0xe2edbf…2592 | ||
| James Parkin | 2026-11-03 | 0.4% | — | $108K | A | 0x6ff8d9…b0b0 | ||
| Shelley Hughes | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $11K | A | 0x129235…1f2a | ||
| Lisa Murkowski | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $19K | A | 0xe40169…ac1e | ||
| Hank Kroll | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $7.6K | A | 0xb2d876…49e4 | ||
| Lesil McGuire | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $4.9K | A | 0x9ae712…8f3f | ||
| Bruce Walden | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $8.2K | A | 0x0d87ce…9dae | ||
| Gregg Brelsford | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2.4K | A | 0x4fd145…8170 | ||
| Jessica Faircloth | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2.6K | A | 0x374285…d901 | ||
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2.5K | A | 0x13aa3a…e751 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf5e3dc…b9e7 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x604d27…d3f3 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9a6adb…5da9 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfdd7d8…b454 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x916c1b…6a8f | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe4754e…f849 | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0ede91…a634 | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4668ef…08f9 | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xae898a…6244 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x07655d…4cb5 | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x927840…c456 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x116a3d…81ce | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4d75c7…3d41 | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x021356…ef14 | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc063b0…2487 | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfe901e…bce3 | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8307e8…aa3e | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf3f4c7…7798 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
- Associated Press from rules text · editorial
- Fox News from rules text · editorial
- NBC from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/alaska-governor-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/alaska-governor-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("alaska-governor-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-552YG8W5J1",
"slug": "alaska-governor-election-winner",
"question": "Will Mark Begich win the 2026 Alaska Governor election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"2026",
"alaska",
"us-governors",
"state-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1071639,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}