Will Ahmed al-Sharaa no longer be the leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $66K | C | 0x568d87…fb27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F551BM8LB9",
"slug": "ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa no longer be the leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"syria-leadership",
"middle-east",
"regime-change",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 66114,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}