Will the ACA credits be extended and the House be won by Republicans in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win… | 2026-11-03 | 81.0% | — | $38K | C | 0xb1dd35…9d37 | ||
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win… | 2026-11-03 | 17.0% | — | $32K | C | 0x00b4ef…0b5c | ||
| Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Republican Party win the… | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $127K | C | 0x635947…3621 | ||
| Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Democratic Party win the… | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $202K | C | 0x64e51f…23bf | ||
| Will something else occur | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf84d29…2b22 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.
This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.
A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.
If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.
The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CQSJVZKYZ5",
"slug": "aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the ACA credits be extended and the House be won by Republicans in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"congress",
"elections",
"2026",
"healthcare-policy",
"aca-credits"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 398989,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}