Will there be 2,000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal in the first half of 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | $34 | $153K | A | 0x90c9f6…fbd5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- suezcanal.gov.eg venue-listed
- Suez Canal Authority (SCA) source of record from rules text · editorial
- IMF PortWatch from rules text · editorial
- Clarkson Research from rules text · editorial
- Lloyd's List from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2k-container-ship-transits-of-suez-canal-in-h1-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2k-container-ship-transits-of-suez-canal-in-h1-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2k-container-ship-transits-of-suez-canal-in-h1-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W8HBT7H5Z2",
"slug": "2k-container-ship-transits-of-suez-canal-in-h1-2026",
"question": "Will there be 2,000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal in the first half of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"suez-canal",
"maritime-trade",
"shipping-volume",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 153436,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 92,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Suez Canal Authority (SCA)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "suezcanal.gov.eg",
"url": "https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Suez Canal Authority (SCA)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Clarkson Research",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd's List",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}