Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? [ resolves 2027-04-17 (268D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 46 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 2027-04-17 | 97.5% | $177 | $8.4K | C | 0xc86cea…8020 | ||
| Marine Le Pen | 2027-04-17 | 88.0% | — | $22K | C | 0xa4a28a…dcff | ||
| Édouard Philippe | 2027-04-17 | 83.0% | — | $13K | C | 0xb73b23…0b35 | ||
| Nathalie Arthaud | 2027-04-17 | 82.0% | — | $6.2K | C | 0x1c1591…4b63 | ||
| Fabien Roussel | 2027-04-17 | 80.0% | — | $3.6K | C | 0xc372e8…ebed | ||
| Éric Zemmour | 2027-04-17 | 75.0% | — | $3.1K | C | 0x09f281…ab0c | ||
| Bruno Retailleau | 2027-04-17 | 74.0% | $551 | $8.9K | C | 0x3a00d0…5223 | ||
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2027-04-17 | 65.0% | — | $726 | C | 0x1fd89a…49b5 | ||
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2027-04-17 | 62.0% | $314 | $7.2K | C | 0x7e5a57…096f | ||
| David Lisnard | 2027-04-17 | 56.0% | — | $6.6K | C | 0x3b47c2…99ea | ||
| Dominique de Villepin | 2027-04-17 | 36.0% | — | $9.1K | C | 0xe90a85…3d07 | ||
| Gabriel Attal | 2027-04-17 | 32.0% | — | $9.0K | C | 0x888a5a…2896 | ||
| François Hollande | 2027-04-17 | 30.0% | — | $8.2K | C | 0xec2ecb…4004 | ||
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 2027-04-17 | 29.0% | $100 | $5.8K | C | 0xc991e4…cee2 | ||
| Marine Tondelier | 2027-04-17 | 27.0% | $621 | $5.6K | C | 0xdfdebe…a1d0 | ||
| François Ruffin | 2027-04-17 | 24.0% | $20 | $1.1K | C | 0x7d2ecf…3c2b | ||
| Sarah Knafo | 2027-04-17 | 22.0% | — | $5.2K | C | 0x2fbe9f…db45 | ||
| François Asselineau | 2027-04-17 | 20.0% | $10 | $8.3K | C | 0x0b3918…ddfb | ||
| Jordan Bardella | 2027-04-17 | 15.0% | $44 | $17K | C | 0x12ca66…ea88 | ||
| Juan Branco | 2027-04-17 | 15.0% | $10 | $3.9K | C | 0xd48be3…a7cb | ||
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 2027-04-17 | 14.0% | $303 | $6.7K | C | 0xedc7ce…cd69 | ||
| Matthieu Pigasse | 2027-04-17 | 12.0% | — | $11K | C | 0x719d9b…1b0a | ||
| Manuel Bompard | 2027-04-17 | 8.0% | — | $3.3K | C | 0x257b72…2030 | ||
| Philippe de Villiers | 2027-04-17 | 8.0% | — | $3.1K | C | 0x6988d0…aab3 | ||
| Xavier Bertrand | 2027-04-17 | 7.0% | — | $2.6K | C | 0x6da7ef…0e23 | ||
| Olivier Faure | 2027-04-17 | 7.0% | — | $1.3K | C | 0xd43d12…1885 | ||
| Ségolène Royal | 2027-04-17 | 7.0% | — | $1.7K | C | 0xbdfff5…fcc5 | ||
| Jérôme Guedj | 2027-04-17 | 7.0% | — | $2.1K | C | 0xf68b70…6b27 | ||
| Sébastien Lecornu | 2027-04-17 | 6.0% | $42 | $1.2K | C | 0x55d5fb…e36d | ||
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 2027-04-17 | 6.0% | — | $1.6K | C | 0x7dd556…6ae1 | ||
| Karim Bouamrane | 2027-04-17 | 6.0% | — | $3.1K | C | 0xe2dc92…01c7 | ||
| François Bayrou | 2027-04-17 | 5.5% | — | $5.0K | C | 0xe5ee6c…dd1e | ||
| Valérie Pécresse | 2027-04-17 | 5.3% | — | $593 | C | 0x31510e…65f3 | ||
| Jean Castex | 2027-04-17 | 5.0% | — | $2.7K | C | 0xafa076…d193 | ||
| Gérald Darmanin | 2027-04-17 | 5.0% | — | $3.5K | C | 0xcdde30…5d4f | ||
| Carole Delga | 2027-04-17 | 5.0% | — | $3.1K | C | 0x915356…0812 | ||
| Delphine Batho | 2027-04-17 | 4.0% | — | $805 | C | 0xe2cdff…edaa | ||
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2027-04-17 | 3.7% | — | $20K | C | 0x15048c…1464 | ||
| Bally Bagayoko | 2027-04-17 | 3.5% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x0a85a0…1a69 | ||
| Manuel Valls | 2027-04-17 | 3.2% | — | $985 | C | 0xd327d8…224d | ||
| Clémentine Autain | 2027-04-17 | 3.0% | — | $1.6K | C | 0xca7fbf…93f1 | ||
| Teddy Riner | 2027-04-17 | 3.0% | — | $364 | C | 0x4a467c…bf6f | ||
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 2027-04-17 | 2.7% | — | $485 | C | 0x090633…b95e | ||
| Élisabeth Borne | 2027-04-17 | 2.0% | — | $970 | C | 0xab960c…2c8d | ||
| Mathilde Panot | 2027-04-17 | 1.0% | — | $1.8K | C | 0x4779b0…6c8a | ||
| Michel Barnier | 2027-04-17 | 0.4% | — | $2.2K | C | 0x7a1663…ef5d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- French Constitutional Council from rules text · editorial
- consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Le Pen ballot eligibility defended at 89% conviction 89% · $11K 24h
- 89% price reflects strong market confidence that Le Pen's legal situation will not bar her candidacy.
- 24h volume $11K is 64% of all-time, dominant single-session activity for this contract.
- Concurrent Bardella (8%) and Le Pen win (27%) spikes suggest a coordinated French political repricing.
- Resolves when official 2027 presidential candidate list is published.
- Bardella ballot access fades to 8% on heavy volume 8% · $11K 24h
- 8% price implies the market heavily discounts Bardella appearing as a presidential candidate in 2027.
- 24h volume $11K is 77% of all-time, nearly the entire contract history traded in one session.
- Flow is almost certainly linked to the Le Pen ballot-access contract spiking simultaneously at 89%.
- Resolves when 2027 French presidential candidate list is officially confirmed.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6Q8LZ5QQW0",
"slug": "2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot",
"question": "Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"france",
"2027",
"ballot-access",
"electoral-process"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 46,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 235282,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 67,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "French Constitutional Council",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}