Will the 2026 House of Representatives popular vote margin of victory exceed 5 percentage points? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 24.0% | $32 | $4.6K | A | 0x5db0b6…3daf | ||
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 18.0% | $428 | $9.4K | A | 0x0938f7…c525 | ||
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 16.0% | — | $1.4K | A | 0xf9e868…ac69 | ||
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 11.0% | — | $2.1K | A | 0x7b248c…5501 | ||
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 8.3% | $70 | $5.7K | A | 0xae69da…f5ae | ||
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 7.5% | $55 | $2.8K | A | 0xcdfad8…b7a9 | ||
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 6.2% | — | $2.0K | A | 0x6472b2…0767 | ||
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 3.9% | — | $27K | A | 0x9163ed…f6d4 | ||
| ≥ 6% | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $1.5K | A | 0xd710b4…f3ed | ||
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 1.9% | $60 | $4.6K | A | 0x24a660…2c1e | ||
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 1.2% | — | $737 | A | 0x70198a…4bee | ||
| ≥ 16% | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $1.5K | A | 0xc8a2de…40c2 | ||
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of… | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | — | $823 | A | 0x97a132…9759 | ||
| Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm… | 2026-11-03 | — | — | — | A | 0xca99b8…a087 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/ sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- history.house.gov venue-listed
- US Clerk of the House source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-18QB26L4N1",
"slug": "2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224",
"question": "Will the 2026 House of Representatives popular vote margin of victory exceed 5 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"congress",
"elections",
"2026-midterms",
"us-house",
"electoral-margin"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 63873,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "US Clerk of the House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "history.house.gov",
"url": "https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "US Clerk of the House",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}