{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260729VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-lucie-castets-win-the-2027-french-p-vol-31726",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Castets 2027 French presidency priced out at 0%",
  "telemetry": "0% · $32K 24h",
  "headline": "Castets 2027 French president: 0% on $32K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GD1GGR4710",
  "target_event_slug": "next-french-presidential-election",
  "event_question": "Will a new French president be elected in the next French Presidential Election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xac9719f855755f578e4979f8edb4e17e259e8e1cc79e46bdbde49e23dbd8b98f",
    "question_raw": "Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?",
    "current_price": 0.001,
    "volume_24h_usd": 31726.132,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 61027.54899999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-04-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Lucie Castets winning the 2027 French presidency at 0%, effectively eliminated.",
    "52% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, making this the contract's busiest single session.",
    "Surge likely reflects a confirming datapoint, polling, candidacy withdrawal, or party realignment news.",
    "Resolves on 2027 election outcome; current price implies no viable path to victory."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 31726.132
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a new French president be elected in the next Fren",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-french-presidential-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-lucie-castets-win-the-2027-french-p-vol-31726/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-lucie-castets-win-the-2027-french-p-vol-31726.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}