{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060205",
  "record_slug": "us-unemployment-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-27-2026-06-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "headline": "US unemployment above 5% before 2027: Kalshi 27%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
  "event_question": "Peak US unemployment rate before 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3MAX-27-5",
    "question_raw": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.271,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14.25,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 27% chance unemployment exceeds 5.0% before 2027, dropping to 10% above 6.0% and near zero above 7.0%.",
    "Strong April job openings data is consistent with the ladder's sub-5% implied peak; the market is not pricing a recession-level unemployment spike.",
    "The ladder's near-zero above 7.0% stands in contrast to the 90% Kalshi odds of more tech layoffs in 2026 versus 2025, suggesting sector-specific stress without macro contagion.",
    "Resolves via FRED unemployment rate data; ladder settles at the highest monthly unemployment rate recorded before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "wolfstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/02/and-more-data-showing-a-weirdly-decent-labor-market/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "April job openings jumped 731,000 to 7.62 million, the highest since May 2024, though Wolf Street notes the dynamic makes it harder for young people to find jobs.",
      "publisher": "wolfstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/02/and-more-data-showing-a-weirdly-decent-labor-market/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi unemployment ladder assigns minimal probability to any reading above 6%, making the 'weirdly decent' labor market label consistent with prediction market pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "wolfstreet.com: And More Data Showing a Weirdly Decent Labor Market | Wolf Street",
      "url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/06/02/and-more-data-showing-a-weirdly-decent-labor-market/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-unemployment-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-27-2026-06-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-unemployment-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-27-2026-06-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}