{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260801DV02",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-stagflation-k12-p6",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T09:56:15+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Recession outcome for end-2026 builds a premium on one venue",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 12%",
  "headline": "US economy in recession end-2026: Kalshi 12% vs Polymarket 6%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774",
    "question_raw": "Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 8975.382111000003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-STAG",
      "question_raw": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.121
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a recession outcome at 12%, Polymarket at 6%, a 6pp gap",
    "Kalshi higher on ~$3K volume; Polymarket carries ~$9K, roughly 3x deeper",
    "Definitional differences in 'recession' resolution criteria likely drive the spread as much as market depth",
    "Resolution turns on the specific economic indicator or official body named in each venue's contract rules"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-DF50C877D3); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1501.814837,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 83.73
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-stagflation-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:56:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k12-p6/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k12-p6.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}