{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073107",
  "record_slug": "senate-clarity-act-vote-before-recess-kalshi-33-2026-07-31",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-31T06:24:52.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate CLARITY Act vote before August recess near long odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 33%",
  "headline": "Senate CLARITY Act vote before recess: Kalshi 33%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YTTGGKBGT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxclarityvote-26jul",
  "event_question": "Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-AUG08",
    "question_raw": "Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act?",
    "current_price": 0.33,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15442.36,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 33% on the Senate voting on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, resolves via United States Congress.",
    "The Treasury Secretary's public pressure is the stated catalyst, but the market at one-in-three odds signals significant skepticism about Senate floor time materializing before recess.",
    "Bitcoin near $65,000 and ETF inflows at three-week highs provide a market backdrop that could amplify political urgency, yet the Kalshi probability has not crossed 50%.",
    "Binance.US planning a CFTC application in August implicitly bets on regulatory clarity arriving, but Kalshi's 33% suggests the market is not yet pricing in the legislative catalyst they need."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradingkey.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262066311-crypto-bitcoin-btc-clarity-act-trump-scott-bessent-sec-tradingkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-31T10:34:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US Treasury Secretary pressured the Senate to vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act as Bitcoin surged toward $65,000, with Binance.US separately planning a CFTC prediction market application in August.",
      "publisher": "tradingkey.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T06:24:52.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262066311-crypto-bitcoin-btc-clarity-act-trump-scott-bessent-sec-tradingkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 33% resolves via United States Congress records; the below-50% reading reflects procedural doubt about Senate scheduling despite executive branch pressure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradingkey.com: US Treasury Secretary Pressures Senate to Vote on Clarity Act as Bitco",
      "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262066311-crypto-bitcoin-btc-clarity-act-trump-scott-bessent-sec-tradingkey",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T06:24:52.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-31T10:34:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-clarity-act-vote-before-recess-kalshi-33-2026-07-31/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-clarity-act-vote-before-recess-kalshi-33-2026-07-31.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}