{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073107",
  "record_slug": "russia-sanctions-bill-signed-into-law-kalshi-58-2026-07-31",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russian sanctions bill becoming law holds above 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 58%",
  "headline": "Russia sanctions bill signed into law: Kalshi 58%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsanctionrussia-26jan01",
  "event_question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JAN01-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.58,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 58% on a Russian sanctions bill becoming law.",
    "Bipartisan Senate momentum for the Graham-led act, timed alongside escalating Russia attacks on Kyiv, gives the bill a better-than-even shot per Kalshi.",
    "Secondary tariff implications for India and China add geopolitical complexity that could complicate White House sign-off, a key unresolved variable keeping the odds below 70%.",
    "Kalshi resolves via White House official confirmation of enactment; presidential signature is the final gate and the 42% NO side reflects that uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Erin Hale",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/31/how-us-senate-russia-sanctions-could-spell-100-tariffs-for-india-china",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US senators are advancing the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which would impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian energy including India and China.",
      "publisher": "Erin Hale",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/31/how-us-senate-russia-sanctions-could-spell-100-tariffs-for-india-china"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 58% reflects a genuine legislative path with bipartisan backing but meaningful execution risk at the executive level."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Erin Hale: How US Senate Russia sanctions could spell 100% tariffs for India, Chi",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/31/how-us-senate-russia-sanctions-could-spell-100-tariffs-for-india-china",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-signed-into-law-kalshi-58-2026-07-31/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-signed-into-law-kalshi-58-2026-07-31.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}