{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072905",
  "record_slug": "iranian-regime-falls-before-2027-polymarket-9-2026-07-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Iranian regime survival holds as long odds stay at 9%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9%",
  "headline": "Iranian regime falls before 2027: Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b",
    "question_raw": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_24h_usd": 145671.09416999997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 9% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, despite an active ballistic missile exchange with U.S. forces.",
    "CENTCOM confirmed Iran fired on U.S. positions; the low 9% probability suggests markets do not view the current escalation as regime-threatening.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract prices a 24% chance the U.S. invades Iran before 2027, a higher bar that markets still treat as unlikely.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the distinction between regime survival and U.S. invasion is key, as air-intercept operations alone are unlikely to trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/all-iranian-ballistic-missiles-intercepted-after-attempted-attack-on-us-forces-in-middle-east-centcom/4012019",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran's IRGC fired multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in the Middle East in what CENTCOM described as an attempted surprise attack; all missiles were intercepted.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/all-iranian-ballistic-missiles-intercepted-after-attempted-attack-on-us-forces-in-middle-east-centcom/4012019"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket covers both regime collapse at 9% and U.S. invasion at 24%, with the spread reflecting market skepticism that current strikes escalate to either outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: All Iranian ballistic missiles intercepted after attempted attack on U",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/us-israel-iran-war/all-iranian-ballistic-missiles-intercepted-after-attempted-attack-on-us-forces-in-middle-east-centcom/4012019",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-falls-before-2027-polymarket-9-2026-07-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-falls-before-2027-polymarket-9-2026-07-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}