{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260801VS01",
  "record_slug": "iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-272129",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Iran leadership-change odds hold near zero through a volume rush",
  "telemetry": "5% · $272K 24h",
  "headline": "Iran leadership change by Aug 31: 5% on $272K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
  "event_question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x43e12647a58ee0b20d2539d23764b0d561ea7be322acb8823f7bb126e67c115e",
    "question_raw": "Iran leadership change by August 31?",
    "current_price": 0.046,
    "volume_24h_usd": 272129.1662449999,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 347940.5819829999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market holds at 5%, near-certain 'no' on an Iran leadership change before August 31.",
    "24h volume of $272K is 78% of all-time flow; almost the entire contract lifetime traded today.",
    "Spike likely reflects a news catalyst, a threat, health report, or geopolitical flashpoint, that drew attention but did not move the price.",
    "Resolves August 31, 2026; three weeks remain for the contract to run."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 272129.1662449999
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leadership-change-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-272129/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-august-31-vol-272129.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}