{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091303",
  "record_slug": "democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-09-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Democrats heavily favored to win the House in 2026",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 86%",
  "headline": "Democrats win US House 2026: Kalshi 86%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "CONTROLH-2026-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.86,
    "volume_24h_usd": 32681.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices Democrats winning the House at 86%, resolving via Library of Congress.",
    "CNN analysis flags Republican structural defenses that could cap Democratic gains, but the market is not fading the wave narrative at this price level.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 48%, implying the Senate remains genuinely contested as the House leans Democratic.",
    "The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) at 86% for Republicans winning the House appears directionally contradicted by the Kalshi contract at 86% for Democrats; treat both with caution pending clarification of resolution scope."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ronald Brownstein",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Analysis finds a Democratic wave building for the 2026 midterms but notes Republicans are constructing structural barriers to limit seat losses.",
      "publisher": "Ronald Brownstein",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress records of House composition following the 2026 midterm elections."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ronald Brownstein: Why Democrats’ blue wave might not be as big as expected | CNN Politic",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-09-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-09-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}