{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060308",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-37-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:30:44.000Z",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $100k by Dec 31, 2026: Kalshi 37%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price above $100k by Dec 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2164.04,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 37% on Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by December 31, 2026, dropping to 25% above $110,000 and 10% above $150,000.",
    "CFTC regulatory expansion is a structural positive for crypto markets, but the ladder's sub-50% odds above $100,000 reflect the current $67,000 price level and recent sell-off.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9 prices 43% on Bitcoin falling below $50,000 by January 1, 2027, showing the market is pricing a wide two-tailed range from current levels.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Rate; the December 31 settlement date gives roughly seven months for a roughly 50% recovery from current lows."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bitrss.com",
          "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/u-s-crypto-derivatives-market-transforms-as-cftc-greenlights-kalshi-and-coinbase-215712",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "CFTC greenlit Kalshi and Coinbase for crypto perpetual futures as the US derivatives market expands, even as Bitcoin slid to two-month lows near $67,000.",
      "publisher": "bitrss.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:30:44.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/u-s-crypto-derivatives-market-transforms-as-cftc-greenlights-kalshi-and-coinbase-215712"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi Bitcoin ladder shows a 37% probability of doubling from current levels by year-end, consistent with the $67,000 spot price and three consecutive weeks of crypto fund outflows."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bitrss.com: U.S. Crypto Derivatives Market Transforms as CFTC Greenlights Kalshi a",
      "url": "https://bitrss.com/u-s-crypto-derivatives-market-transforms-as-cftc-greenlights-kalshi-and-coinbase-215712",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:30:44.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-37-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-37-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}